智能时代的指挥控制:任务共同体机制和模型研究

本书结合未来战争所处智能时代的特点，研究指控组织如何建设的问题，提出了一种新战争研究范式，研究了一种新的指控组织，给出了一套服务当下的解决方案――"指挥控制任务共同体”。从后信息时代的军事革命开始，阐述了为什么说我们进入智能时代；智能时代战争的雏形与表现；智能时代制胜机理有什么变化；智能时代需要指挥控制解决什么问题；智能时代指挥控制有什么不同；适应性指控组织的方案；基于任务共同体的指挥控制；技术上如何支撑，如何应用，以及如何验证等内容。本书既有理论，也有实践，既有偏军事的议题，也有技术性强的议题。

朱江，男，江苏如皋人，陆军指挥学院，副教授。研究方向为：指挥控制，作战实验，人工智能，复杂性科学。作为负责人负责国家自然科学基金（指挥控制任务共同体的机制和模型研究）、军队科研项目十余项，获得军队科技进步一等奖一项，二等奖三项，在核心期刊和靠前会议上发表论文五十余篇，为SCI，EI收录十余篇。获得发明专利、实用新型专利、软件著作权十项，出版《作战复杂系统建模与实验》、《战法创新与实验》专著两部。

第1 章 迈向智能战争 ······················································································· 1 1.1 所处的时代 ··························································································· 2 1.2 技术与战争 ··························································································· 3 1.3 颠覆性技术 ··························································································· 5 1.4 以信息为桥 ··························································································· 8 1.5 从数据到智能 ······················································································ 10 1.6 智能战争的雏形 ·················································································· 13 第2 章 如何研究战争 ····················································································· 17 2.1 创新的思维 ························································································· 18 2.2 军事理论研究 ······················································································ 19 2.3 研究领域性质 ······················································································ 21 2.4 理论研究本源 ······················································································ 22 2.5 理论形成过程 ······················································································ 24 2.6 研究方法论 ························································································· 27 2.7 研究方法 ····························································································· 29 2.7.1 哲学思辨 ··················································································· 30 2.7.2 隐喻方法 ··················································································· 32 2.7.3 定量分析方法 ··········································································· 34 2.7.4 作战实验方法 ··········································································· 37 2.8 理论研究范式 ······················································································ 39 2.9 智能战争的探索方法 ·········································································· 40 第3 章 战争系统原理 ······················································································ 45 3.1 战争系统 ······························································································ 46 3.2 从隐喻来看 ·························································································· 47 3.3 复杂适应系统隐喻 ·············································································· 49 3.4 系统原理 ······························································································ 50 3.5 原理的启示 ·························································································· 52 第4 章 制胜机理 ····························································································· 57 4.1 概念内涵 ······························································································ 58 4.2 制胜因素 ······························································································ 59 4.3 制胜模式 ······························································································ 62 4.4 发展路径 ······························································································ 65 4.5 信息时代制胜机理 ·············································································· 67 4.6 智能时代的制胜因素 ·········································································· 69 4.7 智能时代的制胜模式 ·········································································· 71 4.8 智能时代的制胜途径 ·········································································· 72 第5 章 智能时代的指挥控制 ·········································································· 75 5.1 指挥控制的概念 ·················································································· 76 5.2 工业时代指挥控制 ·············································································· 77 5.3 信息时代指挥控制 ·············································································· 80 5.4 指挥控制面临新问题 ·········································································· 85 5.5 复杂适应系统的启示 ·········································································· 89 5.6 智能时代指挥控制 ·············································································· 92 第6 章 智能时代的指挥控制组织 ·································································· 95 6.1 组织研究的视角与方面 ······································································ 96 6.2 工业时代的指控组织 ········································································ 100 6.3 信息时代的指控组织 ········································································ 103 6.4 指控组织的发展 ················································································ 107 6.5 智能时代指控组织设计 ···································································· 111 6.6 共同体的理念 ···················································································· 113 6.7 任务共同体组织特征 ········································································ 115 第7 章 任务共同体指控机制 ········································································ 121 7.1 以指挥控制为名的困境 ···································································· 122 7.2 理解“聚焦”和“收敛” ································································ 123 7.3 依据“共同观念”来形成组织 ························································ 125 7.4 通过“动态绑定”构建指挥关系 ····················································· 127 7.5 借助“行动自由”来协同制敌 ························································ 129 7.6 任务共同体建设的未来展望 ···························································· 130 7.7 任务共同体建设的现实操作 ···························································· 134 第8 章 任务共同体认知形成框架 ································································ 137 8.1 初始源动力 ······················································································· 138 8.2 隐性权力 ··························································································· 140 8.3 认识上升之路 ···················································································· 142 8.4 新知识观的理解 ················································································ 144 8.5 本体云影模型 ···················································································· 147 8.6 认知形成过程 ···················································································· 149 8.7 知识服务架构 ·············································· 第9 章 任务共同体资源优化框架 ································································ 157 9.1 内在结构力 ························································································ 158 9.2 指控关系 ···························································································· 160 9.3 资源优化 ···························································································· 163 9.4 超网络方法 ························································································ 167 9.5 描述体系网络 ···················································································· 171 9.6 描述网络演化 ···················································································· 175 9.7 描述演化过程 ···················································································· 178 第10 章 任务共同体行动控制框架 ······························································ 183 10.1 行动控制力 ······················································································ 184 10.2 自同步效果 ······················································································ 187 10.3 作战行为 ·························································································· 190 10.4 作战规则 ·························································································· 191 10.5 系统涌现 ·························································································· 195 10.6 宏观模式 ·························································································· 196 10.7 规则体系 ·························································································· 198 10.8 如何控制 ·························································································· 202 第11 章 任务共同体指控模型 ······································································ 205 11.1 指控系统 ·························································································· 206 11.2 指控模型体系 ·················································································· 207 11.3 新增模型 ·························································································· 211 11.4 任务描述模型 ·················································································· 213 11.5 OODA 指控过程模型 ······································································ 217 11.6 智能决策模型 ·················································································· 222 11.7 网络效能模型 ·················································································· 229 11.8 模型应用设想 ·················································································· 232 第12 章 任务共同体实验验证 ····································································· 237 12.1 任务共同体指控实验 ······································································ 238 12.2 指控实验台 ······················································································ 239 12.3 实验数据分析 ·················································································· 241 12.4 指控实验设计 ·················································································· 243 12.5 智能时代OODA 环制胜机理概念演示实验 ·································· 245 12.6 “共同观念”机制演示实验 ·························································· 249 12.7 “动态绑定”机制演示实验 ·························································· 253 12.8 “行动自由”机制演示实验 ·························································· 256 12.9 任务共同体指控方法演示实验······················································· 260 第13 章 补充的思考 ····················································································· 265 参考文献 ··········································································································· 274

"随着科技的进步和时代的发展，昨日的天方夜谭，现在已变成现实。世界以令人瞠目结舌的速度向前发展，在人类几百万年的漫长历史中，从未有过在如此短的时间内发生如此迅速的变化。就像一首歌唱的那样“不是我不明白，这世界变化快……”。技术变化之快，使得我们生在当下，活在未来。历史和现实趋势告诉我们，只企图维持现有优势是短视的，结果可能是灾难性的。因循守旧的人必将与现实世界格格不入。只唯当下不看长远的人，当未知的风暴来临 之时必将被一洗殆尽。因此，只有运用发展的眼光，谨慎地思考和不断地调整才能应对未来的挑战。2016 年激动人心的大事件中，“阿尔法狗”在围棋博弈中击败李世石无疑是具有划时代意义的，它如同一声春雷，让最为保守的人都能感受到震撼，许多人惊呼，人工智能的春天已经到来。举目浩瀚时空，未来难以预测，一方面人工智能草长莺飞，勃勃生机带来满园春色；另一方面，“乱花渐欲迷人眼”，人工智能加入战争后的不确定性又让我们忐忑不安。立于潮头，越来越多的问题需要思考。 未来人工智能参战的战争会是什么样？ 机器战士全面取代人了吗？ 机器战士要受人控制吗？ 人工智能是人类的威胁吗？ 人工智能造成的战争法律和伦理问题如何解决？ 人工智能在战争中会无处不在吗？ 人工智能可以代替指挥员做决策吗？ 决策中，人工智能会碾压人类吗？ …… 智能时代说来就来，指挥控制何去何从呢？放眼智能时代的指挥控制，本书提出了一套服务当下的解决方案——“指挥控制任务共同体”。当然“管中窥豹”，个人探索想象的只能是未来世界的一种可能，所解决的也只是问题的万千之一。“路漫漫其修远兮”，还待更多有志之士一起来为之“上下而求索”吧！ 笔 者 2018 年6 月"