解读分享经济创新创业密码/探寻独角兽

"本书全面阐述分享经济对实现新经济的意义以及推进路径，深度解读创新创业密码。本书以翔实的资料分析分享经济风潮在靠前超过10个细分领域的行业发展态势，涉及出行分享、住宿分享、二手交易、金融、众包物流、服务、教育、医疗、内容创业等。以深度行业分析和代表企业深度案例的形式，全面剖析各垂直领域的发展情况。 本书案例翔实，数据丰富，分析深入浅出，涉及分享经济靠前垂直领域的发展纵览，细分行业的深度态势剖析，代表企业的创业及成长之路，分享经济领域的趋势及发展借鉴等，更有关于商业模式的思考，无论是创业者、投资人、传统企业的管理者、互联网行业的从业者，还是分享经济领域的新进入者，都能从这本书中有所斩获。 "

"张孝荣：腾讯研究院资深专家，曾任中信证券互联网首席分析师，互联网实验室总裁。 孙怡：腾讯研究院不错研究员，主要研究领域为互联网新兴产业经济。 陈晔：腾讯大燕网总编室总监，资深商业编辑。 "

"篇 泛分享经济的出现 分享经济的新常态 ······················································································ 005 个趋势：范围扩大···············································································005 第二个趋势：动力趋稳···············································································006 第三个趋势：行业细分···············································································007 第四个趋势：独角兽出现 ···········································································008 正在“分享”的九大创新逻辑 ··································································· 010 出行分享：共享单车与网租车异军突起 ····················································011 住宿分享： B2C模式领军············································································012 二手交易：循环消费升级 ···········································································014 金融： P2P网贷降温，股权众筹聚集 ·························································015 众包物流：行业升温···················································································016 服务：专业化和长尾化平台崛起································································018 教育： K12个体家教、远程外教、知识付费··············································018 医疗：互联网+医院 ····················································································020 内容创业：网红经济崛起 ···········································································021 第二篇 出行分享的四重创新密码 重热潮：滴滴出行的秘辛 ··································································· 027 残酷的行业整合 ··························································································028 期待未来变局······························································································030 第二重热潮：共享单车风暴来袭································································ 032 摩拜与ofo ····································································································033 资本大战 ·····································································································036 以用户价值为依归 ······················································································038 共享单车能否成为下一个PPP？ ·································································041 第三重热潮：网租车的波澜正在酝酿 ························································ 042 新时代的来临······························································································043 国际巨头的野望 ··························································································044 传统厂商的转型 ··························································································045 第四重热潮： 跨城出行的千亿蓝海···························································· 048 跨城出行正在悄悄发生一场革命································································049 跨城出行的下一件大事： 供应网络化 ························································050 正在酝酿中的四个风口···············································································052 第三篇 住宿分享的创业密码 途家的灵感·································································································· 057 行业升温的逻辑 ·························································································· 059 行业的格局·································································································· 061 如何克服房源与流量的挑战 ······································································· 063 途家的逻辑·································································································· 066 途家如何快速获取大量房源 ·······································································066 如何开拓流量······························································································067 住百家的运筹······························································································ 068 小猪短租的路线 ·························································································· 070 如何破解信任难题 ······················································································ 071 如何实现商业化 ·························································································· 074 未来的风口·································································································· 076 个风口：海外市场、农村市场和特色民宿 ·········································076 第二个风口：主流分化，长尾崛起····························································081 第三个风口：生态构建、众筹投资和新技术·············································084 第四篇 从金融创新到金融科技 金融创新回归理性 ······················································································ 093 野蛮生长 ·····································································································094 险象丛生 ·····································································································096 监管发威 ·····································································································099 回归理性， P2P网贷行业洗牌在即 ·····························································101 未来发展， P2P网贷行业的加减法 ·····························································107 金融科技带来分享新风················································································111 股权众筹市场发展 ······················································································112 人人都是天使的风险···················································································116 未来发展空间······························································································118 第五篇 二手交易的行业逻辑 新市场：“闲置经济”的黄金时代即将到来············································· 131 闲置物品：数千亿的蓝海市场初现 ···························································132 移动二手电商：三大创新升级 ···································································135 供需个体：新的社会消费观念和交易群体崛起 ·········································139 新格局：巨头布局，垂直爆发 ··································································· 142 综合市场：双峰并矗···················································································142 瓜子二手车与人人车的视界 ·······································································143 二手交易亟待攻破的四大壁垒 ··································································· 148 如何买得放心？ ··························································································148 如何卖得省心？ ··························································································151 如何用得安心？ ··························································································155 平台如何盈利？ ··························································································156 第六篇 快递物流新逻辑：打通最后一公里 满城尽是快递员 ·························································································· 163 数百亿规模的潜在市场空间 ·······································································165 两大撒手锏··································································································166 颠覆货运游戏规则 ······················································································ 168 同城货运：零散需求亟待整合 ···································································169 跨城货运：从匹配车货信息到探索车后市场·············································171 泡沫涌入，洗牌开始···················································································176 机遇与挑战并存 ·························································································· 177 政策红利下的价值释放···············································································177 智能化技术的深度渗透···············································································179 行业大升级··································································································180 第七篇 服务众包密码：把人的能力包装成商品 猪八戒网：把“人的能力”包装成商品 ···················································· 190 垂直型平台：分化崛起···············································································192 虚拟企业的运作模式正逐步成型································································197 个人享受的服务众包：长尾市场的蓝海 ···················································· 199 “世界上最烂的一本生意”？ ··································································· 202 服务众包的盈利空间在哪？ ······································································· 204 海量用户的增值服务模式 ···········································································205 线下众创空间的探索···················································································208 服务众包推动自由职业者数量增长····························································209 第八篇 知识分享月入百万的逻辑 冲击传统教育行业 ······················································································ 216 K12教育：猿辅导、跟谁学 ········································································217 兴趣教育：尚课无忧···················································································220 远程外教： VIPABC、 51Talk等··································································221 未来的发展需要跟谁学？ ···········································································221 分答催生知识变现热潮··············································································· 223 分答开启的从免费到付费之路 ···································································225 为知识分享付费是真需求吗？ ···································································229 如何变现？ ··································································································233 王思聪们如何保障优质产出？ ···································································236 向用户收费的三道险关 ··············································································241 未来的四条出路 ·························································································245 第九篇 互联网+医院的密码 从医疗分享说起 ·························································································· 255 难题 ·············································································································255 怪象 ·············································································································256 现有的解决方案 ··························································································258 方案一：在线问诊的创新逻辑 ··································································· 259 如何突破商业模式的难题？ ·······································································263 如何激活和管控闲置的医生资源？ ···························································265 方案二：医生上门的大胆创新 ··································································· 266 医生上门在国内是伪需求吗？ ···································································266 方案三：设备和床位分享的思路································································ 269 一个美好的畅想 ··························································································270 床位分享已经萌芽 ······················································································271 方案四：互联网多点执业风潮涌现···························································· 272 从线上走到线下的互联网分级问诊····························································273 未来医生也会成为自由人？ ·······································································274 微医的秘籍：互联网+医院········································································· 276 2016年互联网+医院爆发 ············································································277 互联网+医院从哪里来到哪里去？ ·····························································279 下一个风口在哪里？ ··················································································· 283 热度升温的垂直市场···················································································283 商业保险的大势所趋 ··················································································286 智能化技术的加持 ······················································································288 第十篇 为“家的味道”买单的逻辑 私厨发展的冰火两重天··············································································· 294 私厨洗牌背后的几重险关 ··········································································· 296 一重险关：食品安全的风险 ·······································································296 二重险关：市场定位的模糊 ······································································299 三重险关：规模化发展的难题 ···································································304 洗牌背后的新格局 ······················································································ 307 做外卖还是回归高端市场？ ·······································································307 企业市场也许是方向？ ···············································································309 第十一篇 直播密码：内容创业 付费订阅 ····································································································· 316 音频分享 ····································································································· 319 百播大战 ····································································································· 322 直播的蛋糕有多大？ ···················································································324 直播的蛋糕该怎么切？ ···············································································326 直播平台能盈利吗？ ···················································································328 唯有独角兽或能存活···················································································331 直播的未来之路 ·························································································· 335 竞争白热化以后 ··························································································338 监管加压 ·····································································································340 第十二篇 工业分享经济的逻辑 政策支持助推“工业4.0” ·········································································· 346 闲置科研设备分享的巨大商机 ···································································347 生产能力分享正在萌芽··············································································· 349 工业分享能否一马平川走下去？ ································································ 352 第十三篇 未来启示录 分享经济八大密码 ······················································································ 358 起源：经济剩余 ··························································································358 范围：“一切皆可分享” ···········································································360 价值：就业红利 ··························································································363 信任：区块链化解信任壁垒？ ···································································365 盈利：多边市场变现···················································································369 演变：供给侧的专业化是大势所趋····························································371 未来：“AI+分享”，新的里程碑 ····························································374 独角兽：引领双创之路的明星 ···································································376 跋··························································································································· 379 致创业者··············································································································· 383"

"推荐序一

分享经济：传统经济的新机遇与传统监管的新问题
“互联网+”国家战略发布以来，传统经济与移动互联网的结合愈发密
切，许多领域涌现出大量创新成果，特别是在分享经济领域，创新成果更
是惊喜不断。
据初步估算， 2016年，分享经济总体市场交易规模超过2.4万亿元，同
比增长翻一番还多。 2016年分享经济各行业的累积注册用户已超过31亿人
次，累积参与人数超过5亿人。分享经济领域创业公司的员工数近30万人，
而平台上的个体服务者数量累积近1亿人次。
行业高速发展的动力从哪里来？
我认为至少有两个：
一个动力是移动互联网和传统经济的深度融合。互联网的基本精神
就是分享，而“互联网+”的另外一层含义是把互联网的资源分享给传统
经济。分享经济创新性地改变了生产力和生产关系，社会资源重新组合分
配，激活了产业发展动力。
另一个动力是政府的号召。 2015年12月16日，国家在第二
届世界互联网大会开幕式上的讲话指出：“中国正在实施‘互联网+’行动
计划，推进‘数字中国’建设，发展分享经济，支持基于互联网的各类创
新，提高发展质量和效益。”
在2016年3月的博鳌论坛上提出：“利用‘互联网+’等新
模式，搭建创新合作平台，发展新经济、分享经济，共享创新经验，形成
亿万人的创新大军、创造大军。”
“互联网+”是手段，分享经济是结果，网络强国是目的，这是一脉相
承的。产业因此风风火火发展起来。
传统经济的新机遇
如我们所预见，分享经济将按照个人、企业、政府、城市、全社会五
大路径进行演进。目前已经从个人闲置资源分享阶段，向企业分享和政府
公共服务分享阶段演变。这个演变为传统经济带来了新的机遇。
企业运营分享经济为传统产业带来了新空间。例如共享单车，数百万
辆计的共享单车作为公共交通的补充，有效解决了用户的出行问题，在一
定程度上达到了减排和鼓励市民绿色出行的效果。同时，也为传统自行车
产业带来了新的发展空间。
制造业企业参与分享经济实现产业转型。例如，三一重工通过智能物
联的设备共享平台，把全球超过30万台重型机械设备通过互联网连接起
来，实时采集超过1万个参数。设备主可以在自己的账号里出租设备，同时
也可以寻求各种后市场的服务，例如维修、配件等。大大提高了工程设备
运转效率，降低了运营成本。
城市公共资源参与社会分享带来新生产业机遇。例如，互联网城际定
制巴士离不开政府客运部门的支持。随着大量社会闲置资源的加入，“互
联网+公路客运”的创新点也会不断问世，一旦网络售票渗透率超过50%，
那么近百亿人次的在线汽车票出票量将催生全新的商业模式。
除了出行创新，还有公共服务的分享创新。其中一个例子是乌镇互
联网医院，病人从挂号、看病、取药、付款到回诊，完全可以在手机上一
站式搞定，可以帮助病人节省超过40%的时间。 13亿人的看病问题是个世
界性难题。中国人多，医疗资源少且分布不均匀，医院、医生、患者、政
府、药企、保险这六大主体之间关系错综复杂，资源供需匹配难度极大。
正是在政府支持下，互联网医院得以解除陈旧规则的束缚，将“医+药+
险”三个关键产业的资源进行分享重组，为解决我国医疗资源分配的难题
提供了新思路。
传统监管的新问题
随着“分享经济”蓬勃发展，有一个问题越来越值得全社会一起关
注：创新需要遵守什么规则？
分享经济的创新与公共服务息息相关，今后将越来越多地触及传统业
态和政策监管的模糊地带，这些创新无论是从范围、方式还是成本方面，
都颠覆了传统经济模式。这对于旧的监管思路和监管模式都带来了新的
挑战。
如何在鼓励发展的过程中实现规范管理，这对于分享经济的走向至关
重要，对于能不能激发数字经济的活力也至关重要。
当前，正值新旧动能转换的重大历史时期，数字经济是发展龙头，我们不能

穿新鞋走老路，更不应让火车改道走马路，而要适应新的形势，调
整政策和法规，鼓励创新和竞争，繁荣和做大数字经济。


马化腾
腾讯公司董事会兼首席执行官


推荐序二

对未来的三个期许
科技发展带来财富增加，财富增加导致经济过剩，经济过剩形成资源
浪费，这是一个全球性的新问题。
如何用最新科技来解决资源浪费问题？复盘分享经济最近三年的发
展，会发现一些很有意思的画面。
第一个画面， 2015年，分享经济作为一种新模式，被中国网民广泛接
受。许许多多闲置的产品和服务有了新的“出口”。例如，出行、短租、
教育、医疗、金融、物流等传统行业都因为与“分享经济”的结合，而创
造出许多新模式和新平台。
第二个画面， 2016年，分享经济进入发展的黄金期，截至2016年年
底，整体市场交易规模突破2万多亿元，同比增长110%，累计注册用户超
过31亿个，参与人群超过5亿人。国内已经出现15家估值超过10亿美元的独
角兽企业，总估值达4900亿元。
第三个画面， 2017年3月5日，在第十二届全国人大第五次会议上

做2017年政府工作报告时再次提到分享经济。这是政府工作报告连
续两年关注分享经济。报告强调政府要支持和引导分享经济发展，提高社
会资源利用效率，便利人民群众生活。
这三个画面连续看下来，可以看到一个独特的现象：从用户接受、行
业爆发到顶层大力支持，大约不过两三年的时间，这种社会运作效率在全
球许多国家里都是绝无仅有的。
这是一个重大的利好。中国的分享经济规模快速扩大，创业者也探索
出更本土化的思路。例如，供给端开始走向专业化，平台开始深耕某一个
细分的垂直领域……对于创业者而言，项目一旦被验证可行，在各方资源
的高效率支持下，崛起速度之快可谓前所未有。
这三年来，分享经济何以能够高速发展？
根本原因在于分享经济在我国发展有得天独厚的优势，正得经济体制
深化改革的天时，分享经济在促就业保增长方面大有用武之地。这三年实
践证明，科技可以解决经济剩余，科技能够促进经济增长。
所谓经济剩余，在企业层面表现为闲置库存和闲置产能，在个人层面
表现为闲置资金、闲置物品以及闲置时间。分享经济的独特之处在于以零
边际成本整合大量的经济剩余，在全社会范围内实现供需的匹配。
除了商业领域，分享经济在公共服务及其他社会领域也可以引入。国
外有许多政府也认识到分享经济的重要价值，出台鼓励政策促其发展。分
享经济在全球的创业和创新颇为可贵。本书从中国的视角做了一个阶段性
的总结，我认为很有意义。
我对分享经济的未来有三个期望：
其一，建立新规则。传统的监管思路并不完全适用创新领域。国家
发改委起草的《分享经济发展指南（征求意见稿）》也指出，将针对分享经

济发展实际，对现有相关法律法规进行评估和完善，加强释法、修法工
作，及时调整不适应分享经济发展和管理的现行法规与政策规定。期待新
思维、新规则。
其二，公共大分享。通过分享经济模式可以为老百姓提供更多优质的
公共服务。例如，共享单车，在商业运作的同时，也对城市交通工具的
节能减排做出了巨大贡献。许多符合民众利益的分享项目，可以跟公共
服务资源结合起来，实现“大分享”。期待出现更多的公共服务分享的创
新项目。
其三，先进者先胜。新技术会成为分享经济创业成功的一个重要因
素。许多原来看似难以想象的技术，都已经进入分享创新项目中，开始
尝试应用。例如区块链技术的商业化落地可能将有效破解分享经济的信
任痛点；自动驾驶汽车则可能在不久的将来改变出行业态，极大地提高出
行效率。
在互联网上，所有权不再是获得商品或服务的最佳方式。使用而不占
有，不仅仅是分享经济最简洁的表述，也是互联网的精髓所在。契合互联
网精神的创新，可以获得更长远的发展。


郭凯天
腾讯公司高级副总裁
腾讯研究院理事长"