南亚能源互联网研究与展望

本报告是《南亚能源互联网研究与展望》的英文版。
本报告是亚洲能源互联网研究系列成果之一，深度剖析了各国资源条件、经济社会以及能源电力现状与发展趋势，提出了清洁能源基地与区域能源互联网建设方案，评估能源互联网投资规模。内容共分7章：第1章介绍南亚经济社会和能源电力发展现状，分析南亚实现可持续发展和能源转型具有的优势和面临的挑战，提出能源互联网发展思路。第2章展望南亚能源电力转型发展趋势，综合考虑资源、人口、经济、产业、技术、气候和环境等因素，提出能源电力预测情景，能源供应向清洁主导方向发展，消费向电为中心方向发展，清洁能源装机规模快速提升，电力供应向清洁化和多元化方向发展。第3章综合风、光、降水等气候数据以及地理信息、地物覆盖等数据，研究南亚清洁能源资源分布和大型发电基地布局。第4章根据清洁能源资源禀赋和空间分布，以及各国家的特点与定位，分析区域电力流向，研究提出电网互联总体格局和互联方案。第5章评估构建南亚能源互联网带来经济、社会、环境等综合效益。第6章展望实现全球1.5摄氏度温控目标的南亚能源电力清洁发展路径与情景方案。第7章提出南亚能源互联网建设的相关政策建议。

Preface
Study Region
Summary
1Development in South Asia / 01
1.1Economy and Society / 02
1.1.1Macro Economy / 02
1.1.2Humanity and Society / 05
1.1.3Regional Cooperation / 07
1.1.4Development Policy / 09
1.2Energy and Power / 10
1.2.1Energy Development / 10
1.2.2Power Development / 15
1.3Sustainable Development Ideas / 17
1.3.1Development Concept of Global Energy Interconnection / 17
1.3.2South Asian Energy Interconnection Promotes Sustainable Development in the Region / 18
2Energy and Power Development Trend and Outlook / 21
2.1Energy Demand / 22
2.1.1Primary Energy / 22
2.1.2Final Energy / 24
2.2Power Demand / 27
2.2.1Drivers of Power Demand Growth / 27
2.2.2Power Demand Outlook / 29
2.3Power Supply / 32
3Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources / 37
3.1Distribution of Clean Energy Resources / 38
3.1.1Hydro Energy / 38
3.1.2Wind Energy / 40
3.1.3Solar Energy / 41
3.2Layout of Clean Energy Bases / 43
3.2.1Hydropower Bases / 43
3.2.2Wind Power Bases / 44
3.2.3Solar Power Bases / 45
4Power Grid Interconnection / 49
4.1Power Flow / 50
4.1.1Balance of Supply and Demand / 51
4.1.2Power Flow Scheme / 52
4.2Grid Interconnection / 53
4.2.1Overall Pattern / 53
4.2.2Interconnection Scheme / 57
4.3Key Interconnection Projects / 60
4.4Investment Estimation / 63
4.4.1Investment Estimation Principle / 63
4.4.2Investment Estimation Results / 64
5Comprehensive Benefits / 67
5.1Economic Benefits / 68
5.2Social Benefits / 68
5.3Environmental Benefits / 69
5.4Political Benefits / 71
6Development Outlook of Achieving the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target / 73
6.1Implementation Paths / 74
6.1.1Clean Replacement / 74
6.1.2Electricity Replacement / 75
6.1.3Carbon Sequestration and Reduction / 76
6.2Scenarios and Schemes / 77
6.2.1Energy Demand / 77
6.2.2Power Demand / 79
6.2.3Power Supply / 80
6.2.4Power Grid Interconnection / 82
6.2.5Comparative Analysis / 83
Policy and Mechanism / 85 References / 88