东亚能源互联网研究与展望

本报告是《东亚能源互联网研究与展望》的英文版。
本报告是亚洲能源互联网研究系列成果之一，深度剖析了各国资源条件、经济社会以及能源电力现状与发展趋势，提出了清洁能源基地与区域能源互联网建设方案，评估能源互联网投资规模。内容共分7章：第1章介绍东亚经济社会和能源电力发展现状，分析东亚实现可持续发展和能源转型具有的优势和面临的挑战，提出能源互联网发展思路。第2章展望东亚能源电力转型发展趋势，综合考虑资源、人口、经济、产业、技术、气候和环境等因素，提出能源电力预测情景，能源供应向清洁主导方向发展，消费向电为中心方向发展，清洁能源装机规模快速提升，电力供应向清洁化和多元化方向发展。第3章综合风、光、降水等气候数据以及地理信息、地物覆盖等数据，研究东亚清洁能源资源分布和大型发电基地布局。第4章根据清洁能源资源禀赋和空间分布，以及各国家的特点与定位，分析区域电力流向，研究提出电网互联总体格局和互联方案。第5章评估构建东亚能源互联网带来经济、社会、环境等综合效益。第6章展望实现全球1.5摄氏度温控目标的东亚能源电力清洁发展路径与情景方案。第7章提出东亚能源互联网建设的相关政策建议。

Preface
Study Region
Summary
1 Development in East Asia / 01
1.1 Economy and Society / 02
1.1.1 Macro Economy / 02
1.1.2 Humanity and Society / 03
1.1.3 Regional Cooperation / 04
1.1.4 Development Policy / 05
1.2 Energy and Power / 06
1.2.1 Energy Development / 06
1.2.2 Power Development / 10
1.3 Sustainable Development Ideas / 13
1.3.1 Development Concept of Global Energy Interconnection / 13
1.3.2 East Asia Energy Interconnection Promotes Sustainable Development in the Region / 14
2 Energy and Power Development Trend and Outlook / 17
2.1 Energy Demand / 18
2.1.1 Primary Energy / 18
2.1.2 Final Energy / 20
2.2 Power Demand / 23
2.2.1 Drivers of Power Demand Growth / 23
2.2.2 Power Demand Outlook / 28
2.3 Power Supply / 30
3 Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources / 39
3.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources / 40
3.1.1 Hydro Energy / 40
3.1.2 Wind Energy / 41
3.1.3 Solar Energy / 41
3.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases / 43
3.2.1 Hydropower Bases / 43
3.2.2 Wind Power Bases / 44
3.2.3 Solar Power Bases / 46
4 Power Grid Interconnection / 49
4.1 Power Flow / 50
4.1.1 Balance of Supply and Demand / 51
4.1.2 Power Flow Scheme / 51
4.2 Grid Interconnection / 53
4.2.1 Overall pattern / 53
4.2.2 Interconnection Scheme / 56
4.3 Key Interconnection Projects / 59
4.3.1 Key Inter-Regional Projects / 59
4.3.2 Key Cross-border Projects / 62
4.4 Investment Estimation / 65
4.4.1 Investment Estimation Principle / 65
4.4.2 Investment Estimation Results / 67
5 Comprehensive Benefits / 69
5.1 Economic Benefits / 70
5.2 Social Benefits / 70
5.3 Environmental Benefits / 71
5.4 Political Benefits / 73
6 Development Outlook of Achieving the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target / 75
6.1 Implementation Paths / 76
6.1.1 Clean Replacement / 76
6.1.2 Electricity Replacement / 77
6.1.3 Carbon Sequestration and Reduction / 77
6.2 Scenarios and Schemes / 78
6.2.1 Energy Demand / 78
6.2.2 Power Demand / 80
6.2.3 Power Supply / 81
6.2.4 Power Grid Interconnection / 83
6.2.5 Comparative Analysis/ 84
7 Policy and Mechanism / 85
References / 88