清洁能源发电技术发展与展望

本报告是《清洁能源发电技术发展与展望》的英文版。本报告一方面对主要清洁能源发电技术（水电、风电、光伏、光热、地热和海洋能）的发展历史、关键技术和技术需求进行了综述，另一方面对各类清洁能源发电技术的技术发展趋势和经济性进行了研判。报告总共6章，以全面性为宗旨，按章节分别介绍了6种主要清洁能源发电技术的基本原理，结合走访与调研，梳理了清洁能源发电技术的发展现状，紧密结合能源清洁转型需求，分析了面临的主要技术难点。整合技术性和经济性研究，基于技术成熟度评估，提出了各类发电技术未来的发展目标和研发攻关方向；分析影响经济性的主要技术因素，采用多元线性回归与深度自学习神经元网络相结合的分析方法，根据技术发展目标研判经济性变化趋势。

PREFACE
SUMMARY
1Hydropower Generation Technology 001
1.1Current Situation 002
1.1.1Overview 002
1.1.2Key Technologies 008
1.1.3Project Cases 009
1.2Demand and Trend 012
1.3Technical Difficulties 015
1.3.1Large-size Francis Turbine Generator Set 015
1.3.2Large-size Pelton Turbine Generation Unit 016
1.3.3VFSR pumped storage generator unit 017
1.4Economic Analysis 018
1.4.1Cost Structure 018
1.4.2LCOE 021
1.5Development Prospect 022
1.5.1Technical Research 022
1.5.2Economic Research 026
2Wind Power Generation Technology 029
2.1Current Situation 030
2.1.1Overview 030
2.1.2Key Technologies 039
2.1.3Project Cases 041
2.2Demand and Trend 043
2.3Technical Difficulties 047
2.3.1Blade upsizing technology 047
2.3.2Offshore Wind Turbine Generator Foundation Technology 048
2.3.3Low temperature resistance technology 049
2.3.4Grid Friendly Technology 050
2.4Economic Analysis 053
2.4.1Cost Structure 053
2.4.2LCOE 055
2.5Development Prospect 057
2.5.1Technical Research 057
2.5.2Economic Research 063
3Photovoltaic Power Generation Technology 071
3.1Current Situation 072
3.1.1Overview 072
3.1.2Key Technologies 084
3.1.3Project Cases 086
3.2Demand and Trend 087
3.3Technical Difficulties 090
3.3.1Improvement of conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells 090
3.3.2Improvement of Adaptability to Extreme Environments 091
3.4Economic Analysis 093
3.4.1Cost Structure 093
3.4.2LCOE 095
3.5Development Prospect 096
3.5.1Technical Research 096
3.5.2Economic Research 101
4Concentrating Solar Power Generation Technology 109
4.1Current Situation 110
4.1.1Overview 110
4.1.2Key Technologies 117
4.1.3Project Cases 119
4.2Demand and Trend 121
4.3Technical Difficulties 123
4.3.1Improvement of optical concentration ratio 123
4.3.2Selection of heat transfer and storage medium 124
4.4Economic Analysis 126
4.4.1Cost Structure 126
4.4.2LCOE 128
4.5Development Prospect 129
4.5.1Technical Research 129
4.5.2Economic Research 133
5Geothermal Power Generation Technology 135
5.1Current Situation 136
5.1.1Overview 136
5.1.2Key Technologies 142
5.1.3Project Cases 144
5.2Demand and trend 146
5.3Economic analysis 148
5.4Development Prospect 149
5.4.1Technical Research 149
5.4.2Economic Research 156
6Ocean Energy Power Generation Technology 157
6.1Overview 158
6.2Tidal range energy 159
6.2.1Overview 159
6.2.2Key Technologies 165
6.2.3Development Prospect 165
6.3Wave Energy 166
6.3.1Overview 166
6.3.2Key Technologies 173
6.3.3Development Prospect 174
6.4Ocean current energy 175
6.4.1Overview 175
6.4.2Key Technologies 179
6.4.3Development Prospect 181
6.5Ocean thermal energy 182
6.5.1Overview 182
6.5.2Key Technologies 186
6.5.3Development Prospect 187
6.6Ocean salinity energy 188
6.6.1Overview 188
6.6.2Key Technologies 193
6.6.3Development Prospect 193
Epilogue
Appendix 1 Technology Readiness Assessment Method 196
Appendix 2 Estimation Method of Clean Energy Power Generation Investment 200
Appendix 3 Calculation Method of Clean Energy Power Generation LCOE 216
Appendix 4 Glossary of Technical Terms 221