中国海外投资国家风险评级报告

中国已经是全球第二大对外直接投资国。但在对外直接投资迅速增长的同时，中国企业海外投资面临的外部风险也在显著提升。本书从中国企业和主权财富的海外投资视角出发，构建了经济基础、偿债能力、社会弹性、政治风险和对华关系五大指标、共41个子指标全面和量化评估了中国企业海外投资所面临的主要风险。从总的评级结果来看，发达经济体的经济基础较好，偿债能力较强，社会弹性较高，政治风险较低，整体投资风险明显低于新兴经济体。对新兴经济体来说，经济基础和政治风险与发达国家差距仍然非常明显，政治局势的不确定性可能会影响经济复苏进程，进而影响直接投资的环境。

张明，研究员，博士生导师。中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室主任。研究领域为国际金融与宏观经济。入选国家万人计划首批青年拔尖人才、中国金融博物馆中国青年金融学者、中央国家机关优秀共产党员。兼任平安证券首席经济学家。在国内外学术期刊与财经媒体上分别发表了若干学术论文与财经评论，并撰写了大量的决策咨询报告。王碧珺，副研究员。中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室副主任，北京大学经济学博士。研究领域为国际投资，在《世界经济》《世界经济与政治》Ｃｈｉｎａ＆Ｗｏｒｌｄ Ｅｃｏｎｏｍｙ等国内外核心期刊上发表相关学术论文数十篇，并著有《中国对外直接投资的理论、战略与政策》一书。

Country-risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2019): Main Report, CROIC-IWEP
Ⅰ.Rating Background
Ⅱ.Summary of Rating Methodologies by Rating Agencies
1.Brief introduction of Country Credit Rating Agencies
2.Rating Targets
3.Components of Rating System
4.Features of Rating Methodologies
Ⅲ.Methodology of CROIC-IWEP
1.Index Selection
2.Standardization,Weighting and Grading
3.Rating Samples
4.Characteristics of CROIC Rating System
5.Future Plan
Ⅳ.Overall Analysis of CROIC-IWEP Rating Results
1.Overall Results
2.Indicator Analysis
Ⅴ.Country Analysis of CROIC-IWEP Ratings
1.Bangladesh (↑12)
2.Sri Lanka (↑12)
3.Zambia (↑9)
4.Laos (↑9)
5.Mexico (↓13)
6.India (↓13)
7.Pakistan (↓11)
8.Uzbekistan (↓11)
9.America (↓10)
Country-risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2019): Risk Rating of Countries along the Belt and Road Routes
Original Data of CROIC-IWEP
Table 1 GDP Scale
Table 2 Per Capita GDP
Table 3 GDP Growth
Table 4 Five-Year Fluctuation Ratio of GDP
Table 5 Openness of Trade
Table 6 Openness of Investment
Table 7 Chinn-Ito Index
Table 8 Consumer Price Index
Table 9 Unemployment Rate
Table 10 Gini Coefficient
Table 11 Public Debt/GDP
Table 12 Foreign Debt/GDP
Table 13 Short-term Foreign Debt/Total Foreign Deb
Table 14 Fiseal Balance/GDP
Table 15 Foreign Debt/Foreign Exchange Reserves
Table 16 Current Account Balance/GDP
Table 17 Trade Conditions
Table 18 Non-Performing Bank Loans/Aggregate Loans
Table 19 Importance as an International Reserve Currency
Table 20 Internal Conflict
Table 21 Environment Policy
Table 22 Restriction on Flow of Capital and People
Table 23 Labor Market Regulation
Table 24 Commerce Regulation
Table 25 Average Years of Sehooling
Table 26 Public Safety (Homicide Rate per 100000 Inhabitants)
Table 27 Other Investment Risks
Table 28 Time in Office(Remaining Years in Office)
Table 29 Government Stability
Table 30 Military Intervention in Politics
Table 31 Corruption
Table 32 Democracy and Accountability
Table 33 Effeetiveness of Government
Table 34 Rule of Law
Table 35 External Conflict
Table 36 Trade Dependency
Table 37 Investment Dependency
Table 38 Signing of BIT
Table 39 Visa Approval
Table 40 Investment Block
Table 41 Bilateral Political Relations