1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 What Is Emergency Warning 3
1.3 Leakage Accidents and Regional Evacuation in China 5
1.3.1 The Regional Distribution of Toxic Gas Leakage Resulting in Evacuation 5
1.3.2 Statistical Analysis of Evacuation Events 6
1.4 Public Protection Methods 9
1.4.1 The Basic Process of Emergency Evacuation 9
1.4.2 Safety Requirement for Personnel Evacuation for Toxic Gas Leakage 12
1.4.3 Determining Method of Evacuation Area 15
1.5 Evacuation Scale Estimation 18
1.5.1 Population Scale Estimation Methods 18
1.5.2 The Influence Factors on the Scale of Evacuation 21
1.6 Research Status of Emergency Decisions Both at Home and Abroad 22
1.7 Research Objects and Characteristics 26
References 27
2 Emergency Warning System for Major Accidents 31
2.1 Emergency Warning System 31
2.1.1 Composition of the Early Warning System 31
2.1.2 Functions of Early Warning System 32
2.1.3 Implementation of Early Warning System 34
2.2 Literature Review on References of Emergency Early Warning Both at Home and Abroad 36
2.2.1 Public Alerting System in the United States 36
2.2.2 The Public Alerting System in Japan 38
2.2.3 Public Alert System from Other Foreign Organizations 40
2.2.4 Public Alerting System in China 41
2.3 The Design and Implementation of Early Warning System for Major Accidents 43
2.3.1 FM Broadcasting Technology Based on Different Locations 43
2.3.2 The Structure of Public Alert System Based on FM Broadcast for Different Addresses 46
2.3.3 Researches on Hardware Development of Indoor Alarm Receivers 49
2.3.4 Researches on Embedded Software Development of Indoor Alarm Receivers 54
2.4 Summary of the Chapter 63
References 63
3 Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 65
3.1 An Overview of Researches on Communication and Diffusion of Emergency Warning 65
3.2 The Influence Factors of Early Warning Communication 67
3.3 General Rules for Alert Information Communication 71
3.4 Modeling of the Communication Rules of Alert for Individual Household 74
3.4.1 The Establishment of the Model 74
3.4.2 The Solution of the Model 77
3.5 The Simulation and Results Analysis of Communication Model of Alerts for Individual Household 79
3.5.1 Simulation Results and Analysis of the Communication Time 80
3.5.2 The Simulation Results and Analysis of Closeness of Social Relationship 81
3.5.3 Simulation Analysis and Results of Deployment Proportion of Alert Receivers 83
3.6 Summary of the Chapter 83
References 85
4 Regional Evacuation Modeling for Toxic Cloud Releases and Its Application in Strategy Assessment of Evacuation Warning 89
4.1 Methods 90
4.1.1 Description of Regional Evacuation Network 90
4.1.2 Diffusion of Evacuation Warning 90
4.1.3 Loading of Evacuation Flow 94
4.1.4 Movement Through Regional Evacuation Network 95
4.2 Health Consequence Analysis 99
4.2.1 Accident Consequence Simulation 99
4.2.2 Exposure Dose Calculation 99
4.2.3 Conditional Probability of Consequences 100
4.3 Case Study and Discussion in China 100
4.3.1 Preliminaries 100
4.3.2 Evacuation Efficiency Under Different Evacuation Warning Strategies 103
4.3.3 Health Consequences of Accidents Under Different Evacuation Warning Strategies 107
4.4 Summary of the Chapter 108
References 109
5 Multi-objective Route Planning Model and Algorithm for Emergency Management 113
5.1 Literature Review 113
5.2 Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 116
5.2.1 Definition of Variables and Parameters 116
5.2.2 Bounded Rationality in Decision-Making 117
5.2.3 Multi-objective Route Planning Model for Emergency Logistics Management 117
5.3 Preliminaries 118
5.3.1 Classical Algorithms to Solve Single-Objective Shortest Path Problem 118
5.3.2 Construction of Auxiliary Functions 119
5.3.3 Main-Objective Method to Deal with Multi-objective Optimization Problems 121
5.4 Proposed Heuristic Algorithm 122
5.4.1 Static Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based on A* Algorithm 123
5.4.2 Dynamic Heuristic Algorithm to Solve Model I Based on D* Algorithm 124
5.4.3 Algorithm Advantage 124
5.5 Computational Experiments 125
5.5.1 Results of Model III When s Varies Within the Interval [0， 1] 125
5.5.2 Results of Model I in Static Environments 126
5.5.3 Results of Model I in Dynamic Environments 147
5.6 Summary of the Chapter 148
References 149
6 Evacuation Risk Assessment of Regional Evacuation for Major Accidents and Its Application in Emergency Planning 151
6.1 Evacuation Risk Assessment Process 154
6.1.1 Calculation of Received Dose 154
6.1.2 Conditional Probability Calculation of Health Consequence 158
6.1.3 Determination of Occurrence Probability 158
6.1.4 Calculation of Individual Evacuation Risk 158
6.1.5 Acceptable Risk Level 159
6.2 The Application in Emergency Planning 161
摘要
Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Background China is a major country in chemicals production and use. While chemicals bring people great convenience， they can also cause significant risks for human health， safety， and environment. Various chemical accidents， such as explosion， fire， and toxic chemical leakage， happen frequently， especially in recent years. Major toxic leakages occur in China， too. For example， on December 23， a blowout happened from the 16H well in Luojia， Kaixian， Chongqing Municipality， in which， more than 93，000 people got affected， over 65，000 people were forced to evacuate and transfer， 243 people lost their lives， and the direct economic loss rocketed to 92，627，000 yuan. Also， on April 16， 2004， a liquid chlorine tank of Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Industry Plant exploded， resulting in nine deaths. The local government evacuated around 150，000 people surrounding the accident site， and the direct economic loss reached 2，770，000 rmb. On March 25， 2006， there is a blowout in the No. 2 well of Luojia， Kaixian County， Chongqing Municipality， causing more than 10，000 people evacuated and a 4，283，130，000 rmb direct loss. On December 21， the gas well in Qingxi， Xuanhan， Sichuan Province， overflowed， in which， tens of thousands of people got evacuated. And on May 19， 2009， a well-blowout occurred in the No. 926 well in Xinchang gas field， Deyang Municipality， Sichuan Province， evacuating thousands of people. Toxic gas leakage refers to all kinds of inflammable， explosive and toxic liquid or gas leaks or blow off due to human factors， equipment factors， improper production management or environment factors， during the process of production， transportation， storage， and usage. In the accident， a large quantity of highly toxic gas might be released to the sky， form into toxic gas cloud， and then spread. If not evacuate immediately or take effective preventive measures， the risk of getting poisoned， or even causing death would occur， especially in those gas leakage accidents with large influencing areas， featuring in a low occurrence rate， insufficient precursors， huge complexity， which might cause potential secondary harms and serious damages and it is hard to be handled by conventional management mode， bringing huge destructions. Thus， they often lead to severe casualties， serious economic losses， and huge adverse effects to the society. The accidents that cause casualties and great evacuation， were triggered by safety issues in production， and more importantly， by the backwardness and weakness in emergency warning technology and systems. For example， the“12.23” blowout in Kaixian， Chongqing Municipality， the residents and well staff who got the warning and evacuation notices started evacuation immediately， while residents who lived relatively far from the site failed to get the warning. Some got exposed to the toxic gas 3–4 h after the blowout occurred and died. Also， on March 25， in the “3.25” blowout of Kaixian， the local government releasedwarnings through the backward warning system， causing an evacuation with a scale too large for the accident， resulting in a huge compensation of the company to the evacuees. The economic losses were unbearable， eventually causing the Luojiazhai gas mine to stop exploring. The decision-making was not wise， not only wasted resources， but also increased the tension of China’s energy supply. Reflected upon the emergency disposals of major gas leakages， clearly， to evacuate personnel to safe location is a major method to protect the public. Evacuations for major gas leakage can cover a few buildings and many communities， even sometimes a large range covering multiple cities. Regional evacuation can serve as an effective method to protect the public from getting harmed in emergency responses， and can involve tens of thousands of people within a few kilometers or even dozens of kilometer radius of the accident. Large-scale evacuations are often influenced by hazardous substances， intensity of leakage， the occurrence time of the accident and its duration， meteorological and geographical conditions and others， with its preparation， organization， and implementation are often too complex and difficult to control. If not taken seriously， any delay or carelessness can cause major injuries. Under most circumstances， the evacuation time should be strictly constrained to within a few hours. For taking a rapid and effective evacuation or shelter-in-place by the people surrounding the accident area， the local government needs to deliver warnings timely to those within the affected area， and to take protection measures through various media to the affected public. The issuing and notification process of warnings directly influence the public reaction time， and thus affect the reliability and effectiveness of public emergency responses. These processes should be taken as a key to the implementation of emergency responses. To ensure the safety of the surrounding
