Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Research Background and Motivation
1.2 Research Aim and Objectives
1.3 Overview of International Demand for UK Tourism
1.4 Structure of This Book
Chapter 2 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Non-causal Time Series Techniques
2.2.1 Overview
2.2.2 The Na?ve Model
2.2.3 The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
2.2.4 The Exponential Smoothing Model
2.2.5 The State Space ETS Model
2.2.6 The Structural Time Series Model
2.2.7 The Singular Spectrum Analysis
2.3 Causal Econometric Models
2.3.1 Overview
2.3.2 The Single - Equation Approach
2.3.3 The System - of - Equations Approach
2.3.4 Studies Based on Panel Data
2.3.5 Climate and Tourism Demand
2.4 The Combination Forecasting Approach
2.4.1 Why to Combine
2.4.2 Weighting Schemes
2.4.3 Applications in the Tourism Demand Literature
2.5 Data
2.5.1 Data Type
2.5.2 Data Frequency
2.6 Summary
Chapter 3 Research Method
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Research Plan
3.3 Variables and Data
3.3.1 The Dependent Variable
3.3.2 Explanatory Variables
3.3.3 Data Sources
3.3.4 Data Sample
3.4 The Bounds Test Cointegration Approach
3.5 Diagnostic Tests
3.5.1 The Jarque – Bera Normality Test
3.5.2 The Breusch – Godfrey Lagrange Multiplier Test
3.5.3 Testing for Heteroscedasticity
3.5.4 The Ramsey Regression Equation Specification Error Test
3.6 Forecasting Methods
3.6.1 Individual Forecasting Models
3.6.2 The Combination Forecasting Approach
3.7 Forecasting Procedures and Accuracy Measures
3.7.1 The Recursive Individual Forecasting Procedure
3.7 .2 The Recursive Weighting Procedure
3.7.3 Forecasting Accuracy Measures
