第四次工业革命核心技术驱动力

本书作者从梳理历次工业革命演化规律入手，客观呈现了技术作为工业革命产生和发展核心驱动力的本质特征，深刻研判第四次工业革命主导技术群的发展现状和趋势，尝试从历次工业革命强国的崛起与兴衰中，探索工业革命周期中的机遇与挑战，从跨时空对比中析出中国位势，结合错综复杂的国际环境，探讨中国的战略选择。

目　录 第一章 第四次工业革命已经来临 ···················································· 1 一、工业革命及其核心驱动力 ························································ 1 （一）工业革命是人类历史上的大事件 ··············································· 1 （二）技术是工业革命产生和发展的核心驱动力 ··································· 3 二、历次工业革命的演化规律 ························································ 5 三、第四次工业革命的到来和特征 ·················································· 8 （一）新一轮工业革命相关概念的内涵趋向一致 ··································· 8 （二）第四次工业革命主导技术呈现融合发展的特征 ····························· 9 （三） 第四次工业革命有望提升人类生活水平，解决全球性社会发展 问题 ·················································································· 11 （四）第四次工业革命主导技术的全新风险亟待治理创新 ······················12 四、第四次工业革命主导技术的现状和趋势 ·····································14 （一）主导技术群日渐明晰，且借助交叉融合不断实现群体性突破 ··········14 （二） 场景需求有力拉动主导技术应用，日渐成为驱动主导技术发展的 新型动力源 ·········································································16 （三） 主导技术群基本进入高速发展期，有望加速进入广泛应用 全新阶段 ············································································17 （四）技术全球治理深刻影响主导技术发展走向 ··································20 第二章 主要国家第四次工业革命应对举措与核心技术布局 ··················21 一、主要国家应对第四次工业革命典型举措 ·····································21 （一）积极抢抓第四次工业革命机遇，期望引领未来工业 ······················21 第四次工业革命核心技术驱动力 （二） 探讨面向未来的核心愿景，以第四次工业革命带动经济社会的 全面转型 ············································································23 （三） 明确以新一代信息技术和数字化智能化技术为主导技术群的 核心技术 ············································································23 （四）持续强化战略部署，推动核心技术研发与快速应用 ······················24 （五）重视规制改革，剔除阻碍新技术研发和产业化的障碍 ···················27 （六）组建专门的组织体系，统筹推进第四次工业革命核心愿景实现 ·······27 二、美国 ··················································································28 （一）战略部署 ············································································28 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································33 三、德国 ··················································································39 （一）战略部署 ············································································40 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································43 四、欧盟 ··················································································45 （一）战略部署 ············································································45 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································52 五、日本 ··················································································57 （一）战略部署 ············································································57 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································63 六、韩国 ··················································································67 （一）战略部署 ············································································67 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································70 七、英国 ··················································································76 （一）战略部署 ············································································76 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································78 八、法国 ··················································································90 （一）战略部署 ············································································91 （二）核心技术布局 ······································································95 九、印度 ··················································································99 （一）战略部署 ············································································99 （二）核心技术布局 ···································································· 104 十、意大利 ············································································· 106 （一）战略部署 ·········································································· 106 （二）核心技术布局 ···································································· 107 第三章 第四次工业革命核心技术应用场景 ····································· 110 一、驱动第四次工业革命技术研发的根本出发点：人类需求 ···············110 （一）以人类需求为中心的社会生产与服务活动 ································ 110 （二）第四次工业革命时期的新需求趋势 ········································· 112 （三）人类需求加速的重要转折：新冠肺炎疫情防控 ·························· 113 二、生产场景核心技术研究 ·························································114 （一）生产场景简介 ···································································· 114 （二）生产场景的核心技术及其驱动场景实现的路径 ·························· 116 三、典型生活场景核心技术研究 ···················································119 （一）交通场景核心技术研究 ························································ 120 （二）教育场景核心技术研究 ························································ 124 （三）医疗应用场景核心技术研究 ·················································· 129 四、新冠肺炎疫情催生的典型“无接触”场景 ································ 133 （一）无接触配送 ······································································· 134 （二）视频会议 ·········································································· 136 （三）疫情防控中的“无接触”场景 ··············································· 139 五、智能应用场景下的技术聚合及其驱动场景实现的路径 ················· 141 第四章 历次工业革命强国的跨时空对比及中国位势 ························· 148 一、历次工业革命大国崛起的过程逻辑 ········································· 148 （一）具备经济社会发展基础 ························································ 148 第四次工业革命核心技术驱动力 （二）把握特定的时机 ································································· 150 （三）构建并长期维持两个“中心” ··············································· 151 二、各个主要工业革命大国崛起的共性举措 ··································· 152 三、中国在第四次工业革命时期的发展位势 ··································· 155 （一）中国引领第四次工业革命发展的基础与优势 ····························· 155 （二）中国在第四次工业革命发展中的短板与重点方向 ······················· 163 第五章 第四次工业革命的国际科技竞争与中国的战略选择 ················ 170 一、第四次工业革命的科技竞争形势 ············································ 170 （一）全球技术创新格局呈现多极化趋势 ········································· 170 （二）科技问题逐渐被政治化 ························································ 172 （三）领先国家政府在国际科技合作中的保守倾向日益加重 ················· 175 二、国际技术竞争形势演变的深层次原因 ······································ 178 （一）各国对历次工业革命的强国塑造作用认知不断深化 ···················· 178 （二）数字化加速背景下“赢者通吃”与“头部固化”趋势日益明显 ····· 179 （三）现代技术应用的负面效应加剧了国家间的“信任赤字” ·············· 181 三、中国在第四次工业革命中崛起的战略选择 ································ 183 （一） 增强科技预见与风险预警能力，实现科技引领性发展 和安全发展 ······································································· 183 （二） 构建开放协同的科技创新模式，打造面向全球开放的科技 创新机制 ·········································································· 184 （三） 着力建设第四次工业革命4 个“中心”，增加世界客观认识 和了解中国的窗口 ······························································ 185